The move to terrorism prevention is a timely and important development in counterter-rorism policy. This policy report provides some initial reflections on the question of performance measurement in this new and expanding field. By their own account, states have been “learning by doing,” but further work is needed. Among the outcomes of the colloquium is a better sense of what kinds of further research and analysis are needed to inform the development of necessary policies and practices among stakeholders. The following recommendations offer some initial ideas not only for further developing eval-uation tools and responding to some of the challenges outlined above, but also for establishing platforms for greater interaction and cooperation among key stake-holders to help shorten learning cycles and develop pools of comparable data, where appropriate.
Mapping exercise. Although this report has offered an initial survey of the approaches taken by some governments and practitioners toward monitoring and evaluating terrorism preven-tion programs, a more comprehensive mapping exercise could survey and record existing evalu-ation practices of a broad range of states and practitioners and develop a set of models which may be applied in other areas in whole or in part, as suitable to the context.
Database. Over time and with continued invest-ment, the initial mapping exercise could evolve into a database recording experiences, common methodologies, and indicators in order to shorten learning cycles and eliminate the need to develop evaluation tools from scratch. The ability to draw on data gathered by others may be particularly useful for policymakers from differ-ent states advancing prevention initiatives in the same foreign locations. Similarly, the findings of other states or organizations may be relevant to partners seeking to establish the effectiveness of their own programming. In related fields where evaluation efforts have been addressed in more detail, such a database could serve as a portal to further information and relevant publications or web-based tools.
Training. The interest in exchanging information and good practices suggested the need for greater training, and an investment in providing capacities and guidance for evaluating counterterrorism and CVE efforts was highlighted by a number of speakers. These would eliminate the need to develop new methods each time an evaluation was needed and contribute to some uniformity across evaluation practices, thereby facilitating comparative analysis, and, when including local partners, can contribute to capacity-building and institutional strengthening efforts.
Platforms for information sharing. A series of workshops could help deepen and broaden discussions among governments, experts, and members of relevant international organiza-tions, such as the United Nations and the GCTF, to share data, lessons learned, and good practices regarding evaluation practices. Topics addressed by these workshops could include identification of communities vulnerable to violent extremist ideologies and recruitment, the key target audiences for CVE programs; development and testing of theories of change (models and experiences); practices relating to measuring preventive interventions in violence-related fields; and practices relating to measuring the negative in other fields.
Developing evaluation tools for the Internet. Isolating and quantifying the impact of preventive programming, or measuring the negative, may be difficult, but the Internet provides a plat-form through which impacts may be more easily captured through statistics or website content. A content analysis and study of extremist web-sites could track the discourse before and after relevant CVE measures and offer some initial indicators about which measures had been most effective and how to develop evaluation tools to capture that kind of information. The study also can help indicate which entry points in the process of radicalization have proved most fertile for CVE measures.
A tool kit for policymakers and evaluators. As interest in performance measurement in the field of terrorism prevention grows, there will be a need for training and tools to develop capacity and provide guidance in evaluating counterterrorism and CVE efforts. Beyond col-lating existing national practices, an evaluation tool kit for terrorism prevention initiatives would provide evaluators with a menu of options concerning metrics, methodologies, theories of change, and more that could be applied in different contexts. This would help shorten learning cycles, eliminate the need to develop new methods each time an evaluation was needed, and contribute to some uniformity across evaluation practices, thereby facilitating comparative analysis.
In sum, as the threat of violent extremism evolves, so counterterrorism and CVE efforts must evolve with it. A more robust understanding of the effective-ness of particular tools, such as terrorism prevention, is essential in delivering a counterterrorism policy that is balanced and effective.
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